Episode 2 of 6
The Bond Allocation Debate
Fiona's FIRE community says bonds are for cowards. Her model says 20% bonds dramatically improves her sequence-of-returns resilience. She has to choose between community orthodoxy and mathematical reality.
Key Insight
Adding 20% bonds modestly reduces Fiona's expected return — but meaningfully cuts her worst-case first-decade drawdown, and her success rate jumps materially. The cost: 14 more months of work. The FIRE subreddit hates it. The math does not care.
Model This Scenario