Building Wealth
FIRE-Chasing Fiona
UX Research Lead · Portland, OR
On track for FIRE at 42. Or so she thinks.
About FIRE-Chasing Fiona
Fiona has been following the FIRE movement for 5 years. She saves 52% of her income, has a spreadsheet for everything, and has told everyone she knows she's retiring at 42. But her Monte Carlo simulation shows a 67% success rate — not the 95% she thought. Something is wrong with the model.
Financial Snapshot
$128,000
Annual Income
$387,000
Net Worth
33
Age
FIRE-Chasing Fiona's Story — 2 Chapters
The Monte Carlo Problem
Fiona runs her FIRE model in Worthune for the first time. Her straight-line projection says she'll have $2.1M at 42. But the Monte Carlo simulation shows a 67% success rate — meaning in 33% of scenarios, she runs out of money before 85. The problem is sequence-of-returns risk in the first decade of retirement.
Uses: fireThe Bond Allocation Debate(Coming soon)
Fiona's FIRE community says bonds are for cowards. Her model says 20% bonds dramatically improves her sequence-of-returns resilience. She has to choose between community orthodoxy and mathematical reality.
Uses: roth-vs-traditional