Episode 1 of 6
The Monte Carlo Problem
Fiona runs her FIRE model in Worthune for the first time. Her straight-line projection suggests she'll hit her target number by 42. But the Monte Carlo simulation, under her baseline assumptions, shows only a roughly two-thirds success rate — meaning in a meaningful share of scenarios, she runs out of money before 85. The problem is sequence-of-returns risk in the first decade of retirement.
Key Insight
Fiona's 67% success rate is driven by a 4.2% withdrawal rate and a 100% equity allocation. Dropping to 3.8% and adding a 20% bond allocation can raise her modeled success rate materially (to roughly 91% under one illustrative parameter set) — at the cost of working 14 more months.
Model This Scenario
Starting with numbers similar to Fiona's situation — adjust any input to make it yours.