The engines, live
Everything below is computed by the same engine the API and MCP server run — the deterministic household projection, the longevity-aware Monte Carlo, and three coordination strategies — rendered through the embeddable component kit. Fixed inputs, fixed seed: every visitor sees the same numbers, and every number carries a verifiable record.
This household is fictional and fixed, which is what makes it checkable — but it is not yours. Run the same engine on your own numbers or sweep a whole book, with no account and nothing stored.
The Rivera household is fictional — invented for this demonstration. The assumptions are labeled illustrative defaults, not a market view. Nothing on this page is investment, tax, or legal advice.
A fictional household
Alex (65 in 2027) and Sam (63), married filing jointly in California. $90K cash, $650K taxable brokerage ($480K basis), $950K traditional IRA, $150K Roth. Both plan to claim Social Security at 67. Spending: $95K/yr, inflation-adjusted, over a 30-year horizon.
The deterministic projection
One path under the stated assumptions: taxes (federal + California), required minimum distributions, Social Security with spousal coordination, and withdrawal mechanics all firing year by year. The y-axis always includes $0 — a chart that hides the zero line flatters the trajectory.
1,000 market sequences, with lifespans
The same projection under 1,000 seeded return paths — sequence-of-returns risk falls out of the real cash-flow mechanics, not a formula. Lifespans are sampled too, from the NCHS 2024 period life table: the second success rate only counts a shortfall as failure if someone is alive to experience it.
- Death years sampled from the NCHS 2024 period life table (nchs.us-life-table.2024): 2024 cross-sectional mortality, which understates future longevity improvement.
- Deaths condition the success metric only — cash flows are not death-adjusted in v0.2: income and expense streams continue as entered, and survivor-benefit switching is not modeled.
The coordination engine: ranked, checkable decisions
Each card is a decision object: a named objective, a named baseline, every alternative scored and shown (never just the winner), the actions each implies, and what the ranking does not consider — stated on the card, because an unstated exclusion is a silent claim.
Roth conversion ladder
Objective: maximize final-year household net worth net of estimated IRMAA Part B surcharges across candidate Roth conversion schedules, each run through the full projection (score = ending net worth − cumulative estimated IRMAA, both stated per alternative)
Baseline: no Roth conversions over the horizon
- Convert $60,000/yr for 5 yearstop-ranked+$37K vs baseline · −$88K tax
- Convert $60,000 from traditional to Roth in 2027.
- Convert $60,000 from traditional to Roth in 2028.
- Convert $60,000 from traditional to Roth in 2029.
- Convert $60,000 from traditional to Roth in 2030.
- Convert $60,000 from traditional to Roth in 2031.
- No conversionsbaseline
- Convert $120,000/yr for 5 years−$209K vs baseline · −$131K tax
- Convert $120,000 from traditional to Roth in 2027.
- Convert $120,000 from traditional to Roth in 2028.
- Convert $120,000 from traditional to Roth in 2029.
- Convert $120,000 from traditional to Roth in 2030.
- Convert $120,000 from traditional to Roth in 2031.
- Convert $250,000/yr for 4 years−$395K vs baseline · −$333K tax
- Convert $250,000 from traditional to Roth in 2027.
- Convert $250,000 from traditional to Roth in 2028.
- Convert $250,000 from traditional to Roth in 2029.
- Convert $250,000 from traditional to Roth in 2030.
What this ranking does and does not consider (16)
- ending net worth: $3,826,574; lifetime tax: $756,034
- estimated IRMAA surcharges: $5,846 across 56 enrollee-years (max tier 1); score = ending net worth − surcharges; IRMAA delta vs baseline: $-12,665
- ending net worth: $3,789,518; lifetime tax: $844,256
- estimated IRMAA surcharges: $18,511 across 56 enrollee-years (max tier 2); score = ending net worth − surcharges; IRMAA delta vs baseline: $0
- IRMAA estimate (v0.2): CY2026 Part B thresholds and premiums (cms.partb-premium-irmaa.2026) held constant across the horizon — future brackets are unpublished and MAGI thresholds index annually; MAGI proxied from projection rows (gross income + RMD + conversion) with the SSA two-year lookback; surcharges are NOT fed back into the projection's cash flows; 2 Medicare-age years skipped (two-year lookback precedes the horizon)
- candidate schedules are caller-specified; bracket-fill optimization is not yet modeled
- projection: RMDs computed per owner at each owner's age (Uniform Lifetime Table)
- projection: deficits draw cash → taxable → traditional → roth; the draw is grossed up for the tax it creates, solved in the same year
- projection: realized gains on taxable draws are treated as long-term (holding period not tracked) and taxed in the year they are realized
- projection: social_security streams with a computed-benefit block use the ssa-pia model, indexed from the claim year at the COLA assumption; the benefit itself is computed from eligibility-year bend points, which are not wage-indexed forward
- projection: state tax treats realized gains as ordinary income (no state preferential rates modeled)
- projection: state taxable income approximated by federal taxable income
- ending net worth: $3,580,635; lifetime tax: $713,582
- estimated IRMAA surcharges: $0 across 56 enrollee-years (max tier 0); score = ending net worth − surcharges; IRMAA delta vs baseline: $-18,511
- ending net worth: $3,394,736; lifetime tax: $510,985
- estimated IRMAA surcharges: $13,637 across 56 enrollee-years (max tier 2); score = ending net worth − surcharges; IRMAA delta vs baseline: $-4,874
Assumptions: profile illustrative-6-3-3@1.0.0 (default; Worthune illustration for demos and documentation — not a market view, not a recommendation. Institutions supply their own profiles.)
Verifiable record: sha256 3d6448fd13d2ad6f8e521c55d8dd2209f22ed74915a630fdcc0e4213c7ad53db — a tamper-evident fingerprint over this analysis; recheck it from the stored response at worthune.com/proof/record to confirm nothing was altered
Pension election
Objective: maximize the actuarial expected present value of the pension election at the caller's discount rate (scores in USD EPV; mortality from the NCHS 2024 period table)
Baseline: the plan's single-life quote — every option priced on the same lives and rate
- Lump sum: $420,000 at 65 (EPV $420,000)top-ranked+$80K vs baseline
- Elect the $420,000 lump sum at age 65 (in 2027).
- Single-life annuity: $2,400/mo (EPV $340,370)no change vs baseline
- Commence the single-life annuity of $2,400/mo at age 65 (in 2027).
- Joint & 100% survivor: $1,850/mo (EPV $328,553)−$12K vs baseline
- Commence the joint & 100% survivor annuity of $1,850/mo at age 65 (in 2027).
- Joint & 50% survivor: $2,050/mo (EPV $327,402)−$13K vs baseline
- Commence the joint & 50% survivor annuity of $2,050/mo at age 65 (in 2027).
What this ranking does and does not consider (13)
- expected present value: $420,000
- delta vs single-life: $79,630 (EPV, not a projected net-worth path)
- expected present value: $340,370
- delta vs single-life: $0 (EPV, not a projected net-worth path)
- EPVs at a 5% caller-supplied discount rate, valued at 2027 (participant age 65); payments annual, survival measured at year start
- mortality from the NCHS 2024 PERIOD life table (nchs.us-life-table.2024): it understates future longevity improvement, which systematically understates annuity EPVs relative to the lump sum
- pre-tax comparison: annuity income taxation vs lump-sum rollover treatment is not modeled
- joint-survivor EPVs assume the two lives are independent
- lump sums are conditioned on the participant surviving to commencement; pre-commencement death benefits are not modeled
- expected present value: $328,553
- delta vs single-life: $-11,818 (EPV, not a projected net-worth path)
- expected present value: $327,402
- delta vs single-life: $-12,968 (EPV, not a projected net-worth path)
Assumptions: profile illustrative-6-3-3@1.0.0 (default; Worthune illustration for demos and documentation — not a market view, not a recommendation. Institutions supply their own profiles.)
Verifiable record: sha256 246854a2ad51e0d1c7493442479ec1e2370e0c7a7509430d41b361964e35bd2a — a tamper-evident fingerprint over this analysis; recheck it from the stored response at worthune.com/proof/record to confirm nothing was altered
Social Security claiming
Objective: maximize final-year household net worth across joint claim-age combinations, each run through the full projection (scores in ending-net-worth USD)
Baseline: current claim plan: alex at 67, sam at 67
- Claim: alex at 67, sam at 62top-ranked+$74K vs baseline · −$46K tax
- Member sam claims Social Security at 62 (in 2026).
- Claim: alex at 67, sam at 67 (current plan)baseline
- Claim: alex at 67, sam at 70−$119K vs baseline · +$27K tax
- Member sam claims Social Security at 70 (in 2034).
- Claim: alex at 70, sam at 62−$123K vs baseline · +$2,194 tax
- Member alex claims Social Security at 70 (in 2032).
- Member sam claims Social Security at 62 (in 2026).
- Claim: alex at 62, sam at 62−$212K vs baseline · −$94K tax
- Member alex claims Social Security at 62 (in 2024).
- Member sam claims Social Security at 62 (in 2026).
- Claim: alex at 70, sam at 67−$225K vs baseline · +$55K tax
- Member alex claims Social Security at 70 (in 2032).
- Claim: alex at 62, sam at 67−$233K vs baseline · −$73K tax
- Member alex claims Social Security at 62 (in 2024).
- Claim: alex at 62, sam at 70−$334K vs baseline · −$56K tax
- Member alex claims Social Security at 62 (in 2024).
- Member sam claims Social Security at 70 (in 2034).
- Claim: alex at 70, sam at 70−$358K vs baseline · +$84K tax
- Member alex claims Social Security at 70 (in 2032).
- Member sam claims Social Security at 70 (in 2034).
What this ranking does and does not consider (17)
- ending net worth: $3,863,717
- ending net worth: $3,789,518
- the deterministic projection has NO mortality: members do not die, so longevity-insurance value beyond the horizon and survivor benefits are not captured — this ranking holds under this horizon and these assumptions only
- pension elections are handled by the pension-election strategy, which prices options on the NCHS mortality table
- projection: RMDs computed per owner at each owner's age (Uniform Lifetime Table)
- projection: deficits draw cash → taxable → traditional → roth; the draw is grossed up for the tax it creates, solved in the same year
- projection: realized gains on taxable draws are treated as long-term (holding period not tracked) and taxed in the year they are realized
- projection: social_security streams with a computed-benefit block use the ssa-pia model, indexed from the claim year at the COLA assumption; the benefit itself is computed from eligibility-year bend points, which are not wage-indexed forward
- projection: state tax treats realized gains as ordinary income (no state preferential rates modeled)
- projection: state taxable income approximated by federal taxable income
- ending net worth: $3,670,350
- ending net worth: $3,666,556
- ending net worth: $3,577,423
- ending net worth: $3,564,079
- ending net worth: $3,556,957
- ending net worth: $3,455,058
- ending net worth: $3,431,532
Assumptions: profile illustrative-6-3-3@1.0.0 (default; Worthune illustration for demos and documentation — not a market view, not a recommendation. Institutions supply their own profiles.)
Verifiable record: sha256 a7b8f70154125d987e984849e9f914101feb4f0fc400939c76d2d378ed852f7c — a tamper-evident fingerprint over this analysis; recheck it from the stored response at worthune.com/proof/record to confirm nothing was altered
Run this yourself
Everything above is one POST /api/v1/households/{id}/project and three POST …/decisions calls — or the same through the MCP server, or the worthune SDK on npm and PyPI. Every response carries the evidence record shown in the disclosure block; recompute the hash any time to prove the numbers are unaltered.